Thu, 17 January 2013
1. Wheeler v. d'Arnaud
- TINSTAAP, YCSS, and other acronyms
2. What To Do With Steven Matz
3. Chris Blessing Joins The Podcast
- This is not going to change peoples view that I am too negative about Mets prospects
- But hey, look, it's Branden Kaupe!
4. Josh Satin Watch
Wed, 16 January 2013
1. "I Hate My Prospect List"
- The Carson Conundrum
- I Should Probably Price Out Flights To St. Lucie
2. Toby Hyde Joins The Podcast
- Fulmer v. Tapia
- Toby Really Likes Jacob deGrom
- We Both Don't Get The Luis Mateo Thing
- And All These NYPL Guys Probably Won't Be In The System In Five Years Anyway
- Where Does The Mets System Rank?
3. Housekeeping and Sign-off
- Volume 19.2 Drops Tomorrow
Tue, 18 December 2012
Hey all, just a brief text update. Probably won't have a whole podcast on the Dickey trade after all, but I'm lining up a few other spots about it. Let you know when they are confirmed on the twitter. The trade is forcing me to reshuffle my prospect list a bit. I had hoped to have 50-26 up on Wednesday, but Friday is looking more likely now. Here's a brief explanation of what it will look like.
Bats/Throws: This should be self-explanatory
Last Year: If he was on my 2012 list, there will be a number here
Age: (as of Opening Day 2013)
Acquired: Draft, International Free Agent, or Trade, and the year acquired
2012: The pertinent stats from 2012. For batters: PA, Triple slash, K:BB ratio. For pitchers: IP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, H/9. Also, what level(s) they played at.
Risk Factor: Essentially, how likely is the player to reach their projection, mitigating factors here might include gap between present day tools and future projection, distance from the majors or any notable injury history. (And yes, I had already planned on including a risk factor this year, before BP introduced their Explantion of Risk.)
Ranking based on: If I've seen the player live, I'll say so. I can't get to every affiliate every year, so there are going to be gaps. Sometimes I'll be able to fill in with MiLB.tv stuff, but sometimes I have to go off the usual reports (BA, BP, Sickels, Bullpen Banter). I'll source them when I use them. Sometimes I get stuff directly from sources, either on the podcast or offline. And occasionally I do talk to scouts. I'll try to be as clear as I can when it's stuff I saw versus what other people saw. Live looks give me the best confidence interval usually, but it's still a lot of guesswork regardless. Still, I do think it's important for you to know if I've seen a guy or not.
The Short of It: A quick and dirty summary of the prospect.
The Long of It: This is where we go through the tools, the performance and any other relative data points.
The Projection: What is he going to be? I try to give a good outcome and a bat outcome here. Not strictly s ceiling or floor thing, but call it a 75th percentile projection and a 25th percentile projection.
What’s next: Where the player is likely to start 2013, and maybe a brief prediction about how they will do.
Conviently, I can now show you an example of what it will look like, since the trade with the Blue Jays has knocked three names off my list. So here's Albert Cordero's capsule.
49. Albert Cordero, C
Last Year: #18
Age: (as of Opening Day 2013) 23.3
Acquired: IFA, 2008
2012: 288 PA, .194/.276/.270, 43 K/28 BB for Savannah (A)
Risk Factor: High. Cordero’s a long way from Flushing, and despite strong defensive tools, prospects that go backwards in their second look in the SAL don’t have the best track records.
Ranking based on: Live Look/Video Look/Conversations with contacts
The Short of It: Defense-first catcher saw everything go backwards in 2012 and may find himself the odd man out in the lower minors.
The Long of It: I often caution listeners/readers about putting much stock in A-ball stat lines, but a .546 OPS is a .546 OPS. Despite more than doubling his walk rate in 2012, Cordero’s performance cratered and he lost the bulk of PT behind the plate to Cam Maron. He only started one of the games I saw in Lakewood, but there was nothing glaringly bad about his performance. Defensive tools are still good, reminded me of Plawecki with more arm, though receiving skills aren’t *quite* as good. Swing looked good in BP, and you could project average power if you were feeling optimistic. I wonder if perhaps the Mets started preaching patience and Cordero got too passive. I suspect something similar happened with Juan Lagares this year. Cordero wasn’t aggressive in the zone in game action and while he worked a walk, he also worked himself into some bad counts and would chase. You could write Cordero off based on age/performance, but catcher development paths are weird and sometimes you just have a year.
The Projection: But still, Cordero’s ceiling definitely takes a hit and it’s hard to see him as a starter in the majors now. Glove might still make him a useful back-up, but the possible downside here has gotten lower and more likely.
What’s next: A very good question. Can you really give him a third year in Savannah? He could get the majority of the time now as Maron and Plawecki likely start in St. Lucie. Cordero could be out of the organization with another poor year, but then again you always need catchers.
Category:general -- posted at: 2:58 AM
Sat, 8 December 2012
TRT- A mercifully short 35:09
1. News of the World
- Arizona Fall League Review
- Checking in on the Caribbean Leagues
- YUSMEIRO PETIT WATCH
- Bingo to Ottawa?
- Jeffrey has seven teams to recap again
2. Winter Meeting Recap
- GORSKI? GORSKI!
- Jennry Mejia (does not equal sign) R.A. Dickey
- 40-man roster situation
- TRAID proposals
3. A misty-eyed look at the David Wright extension
4. Josh Satin Watch? Josh Satin Watch! #HAIL
Wed, 21 November 2012
1. Twitter Q+A
- Bonesaw and LHP
- Fulmer v. Montero
- Tapia's secondary stuff/Flores' winter league performance
- The obligatory Wilmer Flores at 2B question
- Instructional League reports?
- Just horsin' around
2. Tha Cistulli II
- A suddenly topical discussion about Jefry Marte
- A less topical discussion about the AL MVP
- A long digression about British television
- Hartford, CT: New England's Rising Star
3. More prospect list stuff that's not actually my 2013 prospect list
- Who I'll be keeping an eye on
- Who graduated/dropped off from the 2012 list
4. BREAKING: The Mets released their updated 40-man roster
- Gonzalez Germen? Who had that in the pool?
- That damn Hansel is so hot right now
- Whiter AdRod and Marte?
Wed, 14 November 2012
1. A Closer Look at Darin Gorski
- The usual caveats AKA GORSKI
- The stuff is the stuff
- But, Im not giving up, cuz you know, GORSKI
2. Rap Game Carson Cistulli
- NERD and SCOUT
- Touchdown Tommy Milone
- A brief aside about Ron Pearlman
- The obligatory Wilmer Flores discussion
3. An introduction to the 2013 Mets Minors Review Prospect List
- We're ranking 50 guys, because I didn't realize that was a terrible idea
- What the capsules will look like
- What the podcasts will look (sound?) like
Wed, 31 October 2012
1. A Closer Look at Jacob DeGrom
- The best of the Mets recent college arms
- But probably not a starter
2. Josh Smolow rejoins the podcast
- Mejia and Familia, how do they work?
- Collin McHugh should throw his two-seamer more
- My Goodness, Matt Harvey!
3. Jordany Valdespin Rant #2
- Hopefully this won't be an ongoing series
- We talk about ceiling too much
Wed, 17 October 2012
TRT- 1:33:22 (??!!)
1. Year in Review: Savannah
- Pitching, pitching, more pitching
- Okay, also some catching
2. Mike Newman joins the Podcast or Year in Review: Kingsport
- Talking Mets fans down from the ledge over Gavin Cecchini
- Kaupe v. Reynolds
- Domingo Tapia's fastball (swoon)
- Some general thoughts about the direction the Mets are going
3. A closer look at Cory Mazzoni
4. Not the Josh Satin Watch (awww)
Thu, 4 October 2012
TRT- 58:32 (?!)
1. Week in Review
- Vegas vs. Savannah
- Instructional League kicks off
- World Baseball Classic Qualifying
2. Year in Review
- St. Lucie
- WIN METHOD
- Blah blah blah Zack Wheeler
3. What I'm Thinking About
- To TRAID or not to TRAID
- R.A. bleepin' Dickey
4. Internationally flavored Josh Satin Watch
Wed, 19 September 2012
1. Year in Review: Buffalo
- Off to Vegas
2. Year in Review: Brooklyn
- Reevaluating some prospects
3. Twitter Q+A
- What's the deal with Cory Vaughn?
- Mets in the AFL
- The 2013 OF, redux.
4. Musical Guest: Jessica Rudman
5. Josh Satin Watch